Sino-Russian trade is booming due to sanctions

Now that Moscow is increasingly cut off from imports from the West, trade between Russia and China is growing rapidly. This is what The Moscow Times writes. For example, trade turnover in the first quarter of 2022 was $ 38.17 billion, up 28.7 percent from a year earlier, state news agency RIA Novosti reported, based on Chinese customs data.

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Russian imports from China rose 25.9 percent to $ 16.44 billion, while exports to China rose 31 percent in the first quarter to $ 21.73 billion. In March alone, Russia exported $ 7.84 billion worth of goods to the Chinese market. This mainly applies to energy, minerals and agricultural products.

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Ukrainian trade

But China’s trade with Ukraine has also increased, Chinese customs said at a news conference. According to the spokesman, the trade amounted to 4.6 billion dollars, which is an increase of 10.6 percent. Ukraine exports raw materials such as iron ore and corn to China.

For more than a decade, China has been Russia’s largest trading partner, with Russia becoming China’s largest export destination after Western governments imposed sanctions on Moscow after Crimea’s annexation in 2014. Beijing has repeatedly called on the West to lift sanctions on Russia.

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GDP is falling

Not to mention, Russia’s GDP will experience its biggest drop since 1994. At least, the highest accountant in the country warned about that on Tuesday. According to the Interfax news service, Alexeit Kudrin, head of the Chamber of Accounts, said GDP would fall “without a doubt”.

Russia’s Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development estimate that Russia’s GDP is likely to fall between 8 and 10 percent, although Kudrin also warned of “more skeptical estimates.” Such a decline would be greater than the 2 percent that Russia’s GDP fell in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea.

According to the World Bank, Russia’s GDP will decline by 11.4 percent in 2022, which should mark the beginning of a two-year recession. According to Goldman Sachs, inflation rose to 7.6 percent, while retail fell 10 percent in March.

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50 percent inflation

Some Russian banks, including Alfa Bank, VTB Capital and Loko-Invest, predict that inflation will reach 20 percent by 2022, a level not seen in Russia since the early 2000s. “This inflationary growth began on February 24 and will continue, and will be very high,” said senior researcher Sergie Aleksashenko of Brookings Institutions and former deputy head of the Central Bank. ‘Inflation will be around 26 to 29 percent this year. That is a moderately realistic forecast. ‘

Encouraged by the lack of goods on the market, inflation could reach 50 percent, Aleksashenko added.

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